illusory correlations.

"of course i failed--i forgot to wear my lucky trousers."

the most clear and concise explanation of illusory correlation that i've found comes from wikipedia: "the phenomenon of seeing the relationship one expects in a set of data even when no such relationship exists." data here can be taken as traditional data (statistics, reports, etc.), and can also be applied to a broader scope in understanding it as events, experiences, perceptions, and so on.

this is a common phenomenon and examples of it can be found in most any context. stereotypes are an extremely common example, studies claiming correlation between environmental factors and personal effects can readily fall victim to it, and people simply seeking explanations will typically find them, though they may be completely irrelevant and utterly incorrect (conveniently animating this principle). this is why someone may think that people named trace are not as handsome as neils or rogers(after people meet me, neil, and roger), that pot roasts cure colds (after an ill child pips up after a bit of beef), or that a pair of trousers dictates his or her academic fate (after a success or failure in a pair of 501s).

i've not failed any tests as of recent, but illusory correlations have certainly seemed to have played a role in many of my recent actions. both in the way i make decisions and in the way i explain the reasons of their successes or failures, retrospect and further experience seems to be showing where various correlations were indeed illusory.

from merriam-webster:
illusory: based on or producing illusion.
correlation: the state or relation of correlated. specifically : a relationship existing between phenomena or things.

joey fatone.

well, as many of you may be aware from my last post and facebook photo album, this last weekend i was able to spend the weekend in san diego. twas a wonderful time. and i spent much of it thinking about how i could possibly work

into the post. mission accomplished.

and onto the recap.

rather than bother to post all of the photos on my blog, you can find the facebook album here. only a few select highlights will make it on the post in the interest of time.

to introduce, i'll give you a short timeline.

*4:30 (mountain west). thursday, october 1.
picked up by parents, niece, and three nephews in provo. we begin the drive.

(travel through utah, arizona, nevada, and california enjoying the view. most of the time)

*18:30 (pacific)
arrive at coronado island. waste time on the beach. enjoy life.


*10:00 (p) friday, october 2.
go to sea world. enjoy it very much as i have when i've attended it in the past.

*15:00 (p)
play the idea of being a marine biologist and dying my hair red so i can grow a moustache and be just like the guy who hosted the preshow for shamu. also sit front row for the show. very neat.


*18:00
come back to hotel and enjoy more beach tomfoolery.


*9:00 (p) saturday, october 3.
the day devoted to the beach. gave my best effort in getting a huge sunburn on my back and had moderate success. enjoyed drinking seawater and playing in the waves as i always do.

*12:00 (p)
ate at anthony's which was simply delightful. very much enjoyed it. best fish i've had since england.

*13:30 (p)
purchased a pair of vans half-cabs with a member of kiss on the sides of each shoe. ten dollars new at a tent sale on base. thanked my lucky stars.

*15:00 (p)
more fun on the beach.


*10:00 (p) sunday, october 4.
more beach time, but less "action" and more "loitering" type activities. scavenged for shells and made a good haul. also sat around in the sand acting like i was about to get up. enjoyed most of the day doing such. a delightful final day.


*4:00 (p) monday, october 5.
leave the hotel and order hash browns from mcdonalds. we're on the way home.

*6:00 (mw)
stop at burger kind for breakfast, but it's closed until seven. the time zones have changed and what was 6:55 a few minutes prior became 6:15 across the state line.

(read, make bracelets, watch dvds with kids)

*18:00 (mw)
return to provo. get dropped off by parents, niece, and three nephews. grab my junk, throw it in apartment, and go to the apartment complex office to sort out rent.

*19:10 (mw)
go on campus and update facebook and write this post.



boom.


twas a wonderful time. i enjoyed it very much and thank my parents for letting me tag along. and if you missed it the first time, and really wanted wanted to see the photos i was too lazy to post here, here's the link. and yes, i know i said i'd post a few particular ones here and didn't. i'm sorry, i really need to get going.

justin timberlake.

i couldn't tell you why, but i really wanted to title this post "justin timberlake." probably for no real reason other than the novelty of naming a blog post after a member of n*sync. but hopefully by explaining myself, i'm...

...justified.

with the explanation out of the way, the rest of this waste of time can continue.
for the unaware, last weekend--wait, two weekends ago--i fell ill. i had the pleasure of going to the health center, wearing a biohazard mask, and having a six inch q-tip shoved far enough up my nose that my brain started pushing back. just before the doctor put the thing in, she handed me a tissue and said, "when i do this, your eyes are going to run like crazy and your nose will probably do the same." and indeed it did. as soon as it entered my right nostril my left retaliated, and yes, the tissue was very much appreciated.

following the interrogation, i got to take the swab to the lab, wait for results, and then be told they weren't really sure what i had. but don't worry, they were still confident enough in my illness that they banned me from campus for the next four days. those four days were thursday, friday, and the weekend. so two days of no classes and then no church. made for an interesting weekend.

when i'd reccuperated, i returned to find my midterms happily waiting for me; staring into my eyes with they're own and grinning sadistically. all things considered, they went alright. because i was having to play catch up and study for all of them at the same time i didn't exactly ace them, but as i knew that was coming, i planned ahead and things should still be able to work out fine in the long run.

this weekend, though, i'm missing class for a weekend by the sea rather than a weekend with the chills playing my roommate's wii. that's a welcome difference. also, the drive to san diego should supply plenty of time to read text books and sleep, both of which i always insist i'll do when i'm sick. then i get sick, remember how apathetic i become towards everything, and wind up beating guitar hero.

so yeah, should be a good time. a pleasant break from things for a few days--at least in presence. if anybody would like me to bring you back some sand, just let me know. i'd be happy to. just get me a vial.

watch for my next post, "joey fatone." as i've named one post after a member of n*sync already, i think in naming the next likewise, i'd be...

justified.

when storms seem to be staring.

the midterm nightmare period of the last two weeks is finally over. and thank goodness.

i'm currently in what you could equate to the eye of a storm. the current two weeks are void of any tests, papers, or group projects. one half of the storm has passed over, we're the placid center now, awaiting the second half of the storm to come and throw the oak tree behind my apartment three streets over.

the interesting thing is, it doesn't seem to be one big clump. almost as if this eye was actually two eyes which have met, and will cross and then continue with their respective storms. please see the diagram on the left.



it's clear here that the respective storms have individual courses and only meet by happen stance. however, this happenstance is going to be extremely satisfying as it means for once i can actually study all my class subjects rather than simply studying for each one for two days prior to exams.


you also note that it kind of looks like the storm is staring.






and now i have time to make stupid diagrams for a blog. hooray!